First Statewide Poll Shows Marsha Blackburn as Clear Frontrunner Over John Rose in GOP Primary for Governor
In light of Senator Marsha Blackburn’s recent announcement that she plans to run for governor of Tennessee, Beacon is releasing the poll results of the Republican gubernatorial primary a few days early.
In the field before Senator Blackburn’s official announcement, the poll asked Tennesseans who they would support in the 2025 GOP primary for governor, Senator Marsha Blackburn or Representative John Rose.
Blackburn holds a commanding 52-point lead over Rose. The results show Blackburn enters as a clear frontrunner, with a strong early lead, earning 66% support to Rose’s 14%.
Whoever comes out as the Republican nominee is expected to be a big favorite in the general election. The Beacon Poll shows both Blackburn and Rose leading a generic Democratic candidate by 19 points.
The day after announcing her intention to run for governor, Senator Blackburn starts out her campaign with a commanding lead over Representative Rose in the Republican primary for governor. Her massive 52-point lead is likely buoyed by near-universal name recognition and a high approval rating among Republicans.
Despite her massive lead, it’s important to remember that it’s very early in the process and there is plenty of time for Representative Rose to close the gap, especially as he starts to run ads statewide and introduce himself to voters. While it’s clear Senator Blackburn starts as a strong favorite to succeed Governor Bill Lee, upsets happen all the time in politics. Additionally, Senator Blackburn (+19%) and Representative Rose (+19%) would both start with huge leads over a generic Democratic candidate in the general election, which is notable because generic members of a party often poll better than the actual nominees.
The full Beacon Poll, which includes public opinion on expansion of Education Freedom Scholarships, tariffs, and the recent Supreme Court ruling on transgender teens, will be released Monday morning.
*Full poll sample size is 1200 registered voters. The Republican primary sample size is 623 Republican primary voters.